Trading Sunset

As at Dec’14th, there are just 10.5 trading days left of the year. The Christmas break will be most welcome, then New Years, and onward to Trump’s second inauguration.
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The SPX is currently net higher by +26.9%. On any basis, its been a strong year for the equity bulls, only being marginally outperformed by the precious metals.

The cheerleaders and associated ‘smart guys’ of clown finance TV, are naturally continuing to tout #everythingisfine . As many of you realise though, the reality is rather different.

Regardless of the exact 2024 settlement, 2025 should be more wild, not least with monstrous geo-political wild cards, such as Ukraine/Russia, the middle east, and China/Taiwan.

There is Trump of course, not least in terms of tariffs, and whether ‘DOGE’ can achieve any degree of success in cutting needless spending.

If you read around, you’ll be aware of chatter of SPX 7K, 8K, or even higher. Yet it is an #everythingbubble , and we know it can’t possibly end well.

Whilst the short and mid term trend has to currently be seen as bullish, I’ll be one of the first to call a break… when there is one.

For much more of the same…

Yours… awaiting Santa

As expected… Trump won, even winning the popular vote. Equities have naturally seen a ‘Trump bump’, with the US equity market breaking new historic highs.

The mainstream cheerleaders are (somewhat ironically) delighted, touting #everythingisfine even louder than before the humiliating defeat of Harris.

The US/western economy is unquestionably slowing, with recessionary signs all over the place. Regardless of the remainder of the year, conditions are ever more difficult for the broken consumer. For many… there will be no Thanksgiving, nor a Christmas.

Two key charts…

The Sept’18th rate cut merits as the ultimate equity sell signal, with the Fed cutting by another -25bps to 4.50-4.75%, as of Nov’7th.

The US 10yr/2yr spread stands at +11bps.
The sustained uninversion merits as a second powerful equity sell signal.

Again… to be clear though, having printed a new hist’ high of SPX 6017, the m/t trend has to be seen as bullish.

Bears arguably need to see a monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA (5463 as of Nov’15th), to have provisional confidence the m/t trend has been broken.

At some point… the music stops. Right now, that doesn’t appear likely until the flip side of Jan’1st 2025. The patient… yours truly included, will remain so.
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