January 2025

The SPX saw a net December decline of -150pts (2.5%) to 5881, although that was from a new hist’ high of 6099. For the year, the SPX saw a net gain of 1111pts (23.3%).

As of January 2nd, the key monthly 10MA will jump/adjust to around 5640. To be decisive, the bears need a monthly settlement <5600, to break the mid/long term bullish trend.

I would be especially mindful of bond yields. If the US 10yr yield can break and hold above 5.00%, it will offer a grander run to around 7.00%. Typically, lower bond prices/higher bond yields > higher equities.

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January subscription offers

6 (+2 free) months at $19 a month for $114

Notes:
-Payment is in one lump sum.

Six months > https://buy.stripe.com/4gw9Ey38M2mm2HK8wz
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You’re also welcome to pay via Paypal, especially if you’d prefer a monthly subscription.
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Yours… survived another year on planet Krazy.

Into year end

As at Dec’14th, there are just 10.5 trading days left of the year. The Christmas break will be most welcome, then New Years, and onward to Trump’s second inauguration.
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The SPX is currently net higher by +26.9%. On any basis, its been a strong year for the equity bulls, only being marginally outperformed by the precious metals.

The cheerleaders and associated ‘smart guys’ of clown finance TV, are naturally continuing to tout #everythingisfine . As many of you realise though, the reality is rather different.

Regardless of the exact 2024 settlement, 2025 should be more wild, not least with monstrous geo-political wild cards, such as Ukraine/Russia, the middle east, and China/Taiwan.

There is Trump of course, not least in terms of tariffs, and whether ‘DOGE’ can achieve any degree of success in cutting needless spending.

If you read around, you’ll be aware of chatter of SPX 7K, 8K, or even higher. Yet it is an #everythingbubble , and we know it can’t possibly end well.

Whilst the short and mid term trend has to currently be seen as bullish, I’ll be one of the first to call a break… when there is one.

For much more of the same…

Yours… awaiting Santa