After the election

As of the November 1st close, the SPX stands at 5728, having seen some choppy cooling from the Oct’17th hist’ high of 5878. Monthly momentum is weakening, but will likely stay positive until at least next March.

Equity bears need a monthly settlement <5400 (to be decisive) to be able to claim the m/t bullish trend has been broken.

Regardless of who wins the US election, it should be clear… the US economy is slowing. Whilst Q3 GDP printed 2.8%, its grossly skewed by 5-6% of deficit spending. Other econ-data points aren’t as pretty, not least with a garbage jobs report from the BLS.

Many have been lost in the hysteria, with the mainstream cheerleaders continuing to tout #everythingisfine . For most within the USA and Europe, the reality is very different, with the consumer increasingly broken.

Yours truly is patiently awaiting a ‘decisive’ main market rollover. Whether that is before year end, or not until next year, I will be there, and hope YOU will too!

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#everythingisfine

 

Its the treacherous month of October, but the SPX is close to breaking a new historic high. Why worry though… as everything is fine, yes?

As of Oct’4th 2024, the monthly RSI is 72. Sure, it can stay above the key 70 threshold for months at a time, but on any basis, this market is m/t overbought.

We have ‘interesting’ times ahead, not least with the US election, further rate cuts, and an increasingly nightmarish geo-political situation.

I would keep in mind we’ve now seen rate cut’1, and a sustained uninversion of the US 10yr/2yr yield curve. Both merit as equity sell signals. For now though, the mainstream cheerleaders and associated ‘smart guys’ continue to tout the #everythingisfine narrative.

Ohh, and to be quite clear, whilst we don’t have a m/t turn yet, once we do, I’ll be one of the first to call it.
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