Trading Sunset

A very positive May

The SPX saw a net May gain of +342pts (6.1%) to 5911. Momentum ticked a touch lower, and remains marginally negative. A monthly settlement back above the key 10MA (5811), as the s/t trend has to be seen as bullish.

Natural upside resistance is psy’ 6K, and then the February historic high of 6147. Having put in (April 7th) a hyper spike floor from 4835, the market has a reasonable chance of net upside into mid August. Beyond Labor day, the bears will have into mid/late October.

It should be clear though, the day to day action will be prone to further jumps or spirals on tariff related headlines. If anything, we’ll need considerable popcorn across the summer, and into the fall.
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The drama continues

The SPX has climbed from an April 7th low of 4835 to 5528. That is some 693pts (14.3%) across just fourteen trading days.

On any basis… its been one dramatic April. Mr Market has managed to washout a great many of the m/t bulls, whilst then also washing out most of the s/t bears. Its been normal service… in some ways.

Now its merely a case of whether we stall from within the 5700/800s, and eventually break <4835, or we continue to recover upward, and break a new hist’ high (>6147) this summer

My guess… remains the former. That view would be dropped on any sustained price action >5850, which would be decisively back above the monthly 10MA and the daily 200MA.
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