As of Sept’14th 2024, US interest rates are being pinned by the Fed to 5.25-5.50%
I’m expecting three rate cuts at the remaining three FOMCs…
Sept’18th -25bps
Nov’6th -50bps
Dec’18th -50bps
The latter two are predicated on the notions the equity market will see a significant washout before the election, and the jobs data will continue to weaken.
On a grander perspective, it should be clear that rate cuts are usually around the time when equities max out, and begin a broad multi-month/year decline.
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