Its the treacherous month of October, but the SPX is close to breaking a new historic high. Why worry though… as everything is fine, yes?
As of Oct’4th 2024, the monthly RSI is 72. Sure, it can stay above the key 70 threshold for months at a time, but on any basis, this market is m/t overbought.
We have ‘interesting’ times ahead, not least with the US election, further rate cuts, and an increasingly nightmarish geo-political situation.
I would keep in mind we’ve now seen rate cut’1, and a sustained uninversion of the US 10yr/2yr yield curve. Both merit as equity sell signals. For now though, the mainstream cheerleaders and associated ‘smart guys’ continue to tout the #everythingisfine narrative.
Ohh, and to be quite clear, whilst we don’t have a m/t turn yet, once we do, I’ll be one of the first to call it.
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