Monday saw a pretty strong bounce, the SPX settling +102pts (1.6%) to 6654. S/t momentum turned positive in the late afternoon.
The s/t cyclical setup favours the bulls for early Tuesday… with Q3 earnings due to begin with the financial giant of JPM.
The issue is whether the SPX can break AND hold >6700, or whether we see a stall… and (at least) re-test the Friday low of 6550.
Yours… watching the financials, not least KKR.
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After a couple of weeks of painfully tedious algo-bot upward melt, Friday saw a powerful downside reversal (on the Trump Tariff Threat), with the SPX settling -182pts (2.7%) to 6552. Daily momentum has accelerated to the negative side, as the broader setup favours the bears into end month.
If the 50dma is taken out – as seems extremely likely, the door will formally open to the 200dma… currently 6049. Having climbed from 4835 to 6764, I’d especially note the key 38% fib of 6027, as is realistic before Halloween.
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Something to consider across the next few weeks…
The BPI for the SPX stands at 53.60.
Would the key 30 threshold equate to SPX around 6K?
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Earthquakes in financial land
If you read around… you should be aware of the increasing chatter on the financials, not least the collapse of First Brands and Tricolor.
The banks have been leading the way down since early September…
KRE was smashed on Friday, settling -4.4% to 6019. The 200dma can’t be expected to hold, with next support of the August low of $57.43.
A number of the big funds are struggling, KKR is a prime example…
KKR settled Friday -5.0% to $117.82
Next support are the two downside gaps.
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The reality is…
Most in the financial blogosphere are sleazy, low tier asset pumping hacks, whether its for crypto, gold, silver, or the latest loss making corporate piece of AI-garbage.
A fair number are freelancers of click-bait websites. You know the names I’m thinking of. Every story is either ‘to the moon’ or ‘imminent crash’. There are so few decent publishers left, as they’ve lowered their standards into the gutter.
I never played that game, as I’ve superior ethics than perhaps anyone out there. If you want a balanced overview of the world’s most entertaining, twisted, and rigged casino… I’m your guy.
Yours… independent
A fifth consecutive net monthly gain, having broken a new hist’ high of 6699. Monthly momentum ticked upward, and is on the moderately high side. A monthly settlement above the monthly 10MA (6066), as the m/t trend is distinctly bullish.
Monthly RSI 73s is overbought, but we’ve ZERO sign of a short, never mind m/t ceiling/turn. We could cool to the 6100s in Oct/Nov’, and that still wouldn’t dent the m/t trend.
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Yours… charts 24/7/365