US equities have begun April on a weak note, but two blue Elder* candles don’t count for much, having not seen a red candle since the Oct’2023 low. Indeed, 4103 is a very considerable 1101pts (21.1%) to the downside.
*for more on Elder Impulse candles… see: Stockcharts
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As things are, I will continue to see the m/t trend as bullish unless a rollover in monthly price momentum, and a monthly settlement under the monthly 10MA – currently 4731 (adjusting into the 4800s in May).
Until then, I see any short index trades as distinctly risky, although the bolder day/swing traders could try. Long Gold, Silver, and Oil will arguably make for better sleep at night.
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The wild cards
If the equity bulls should be concerned about anything this spring/summer, its a geo-political wild card/s. The US election is certainly one, but there are many others…
Ukraine/Russia/NATO
Israel/Gaza/Iran
China/Taiwan
I’m sure you could add to the list.
It should be clear… the war drums are getting ever louder. Whether you agree we’re already in the early stage of WWIII doesn’t really matter. What does matter is that you recognise the truck load of geo-political wild cards, which are arguably even more important than whether Print Central cuts or raises rates.
One thing is for sure, things on planet Krazy are only going to get more wild this year.
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